Find the best mortgage rates in Canada

October 2024: Mortgage market update

The Canadian housing market has a relatively quiet summer season, as home buyers appear to be awaiting the effects of lower mortgage rates. Now that the Bank of Canada has implemented three quarter-point cuts in a row, home sales could pick up in the coming months.

Variable mortgage rates have dipped in kind following the central bank’s September rate cut, and markets are largely anticipating another to come in October, which will put further downward pressure on rates.

Fixed mortgage rates have also slightly decreased in response to lower bond yields.

However, from a historical perspective, variable and fixed mortgage rates remain elevated. If you're shopping for a mortgage rate in Canada right now, here are some economic factors you should be aware of.

• Real estate update: On October 15, 2024, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported that home sales surged in September, with 37,733 transactions, a 6.9% year-over-year increase and up 1.9% from August. This marks a strong response from home buyers to the Bank of Canada’s three consecutive rate cuts from June 2024, which brought the national borrowing rate down to 4.25%. While home sales have rebounded, the national average home price saw a modest annual increase of 2.1% to $669,630. Sellers have also been more active, with newly listed properties rising by 4.9% compared to August. However, inventory remains slightly below the historical average, with 4.1 months of housing supply, indicating balanced market conditions. CREA notes that while interest rate cuts have sparked new demand, some buyers may delay purchases in anticipation of even larger cuts expected in 2025. As a result, CREA has adjusted its forecast, now expecting a total of 468,900 sales in 2024, a 5.2% increase from last year, with a stronger market rebound projected for 2025.

Read more: National home sales rise in September following summer rate cuts

• CPI update: On October 15, 2024, Statistics Canada released its September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, showing inflation increased by just 1.6%, marking the smallest rise since February 2021. This is well below both the Bank of Canada’s 2% target and the forecasted 1.8%. The sharp drop in gasoline prices, which fell by -10.7%, played a significant role, while core inflation, excluding volatile components like gas, remained steady at 2.2%. Mortgage interest costs, the largest contributor to the CPI, also declined for the 13th consecutive month, from 18.8% in August to 16.7% this month. This trend reflects the ongoing impact of the Bank of Canada’s previous rate cuts, which have been reducing borrowing costs for Canadians. With inflation falling further below target, economists are now forecasting a larger rate cut from the Bank of Canada at its October 23 announcement. “Given the continued slowdown in inflation, particularly with the core measures stabilizing, the Bank of Canada has room to move more aggressively,” said Claire Fan, RBC Economist. “A 50-basis point cut seems increasingly likely as the central bank focuses on supporting an economy showing signs of cooling.” If enacted, this rate cut would bring the overnight lending rate down to 3.75%, the lowest level since December 2022, offering further relief to mortgage borrowers and other consumers.

  Also read: Canadian CPI falls to 1.6% in September, increasing chance of half-point rate cut

Canadian mortgage reform update

On September 16, 2024, the federal government announced sweeping changes to mortgage qualification rules for first-time home buyers, as well as those purchasing newly-constructed homes.

As of December 15, 2024:

• 30-year amortizations will be available for all first-time home buyers, regardless of whether they have an insured mortgage. These extended amortizations are also available for any purchase of new construction.
  
  
• The maximum purchase price for an insured mortgage (where less than 20% down is paid) will be increased to $1.5 million, from the current $1 million.
  

These are some of the most impactful mortgage reforms announced since 2012, and are anticipated to increase first-time home buyers’ affordability and access to the housing market. 

Learn more about these new mortgage rule changes on the Ratehub.ca blog

October 2024 mortgage affordability trends in Canada

The latest Home Affordability Report compiled by Ratehub.ca reveals that dropping mortgage rates have started to ease the financial strain on Canadian home buyers. According to the latest data, 12 of 13 major Canadian housing markets saw improved affordability, thanks to the first two Bank of Canada rate cuts implemented in June and July.

In August, the average five-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.16%, down from 5.29% in July, leading to a lower average mortgage stress test rate of 7.16%. This drop in rates, paired with softening home prices, notably in cities like Toronto, Victoria, and Vancouver, helped lower the required annual income to buy a home.

Toronto saw the greatest improvement, with required income falling by $4,850 to $204,100, and home prices in the city also dropped by $15,100 from July. Meanwhile, only St. John’s saw a slight worsening in affordability due to rising home prices.

The outlook for affordability continues to improve as additional rate cuts are expected from the Bank of Canada, with the next announcement set for October 23, 2024. Additionally, new mortgage rules, including an increase in the insured mortgage cap and extended amortization periods, will further benefit first-time buyers and fuel housing demand heading into the fall.

Read more: Dropping mortgage rates improved home affordability in August

Highlights from the Bank of Canada’s September 4, 2024 announcement

At its sixth announcement of the year on September 4, 2024, the Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by -0.25% from 4.5% to 4.25%. This is the third rate cut implemented by the central bank since March 2020, following the -0.25% rate cuts implemented by the Bank in June and July 2024. 

• The Bank pointed to steadily improving inflation data as the driver of its decision, with July's Canadian CPI coming in at 2.5%, and inflation declining in the United States as well. 
• Anyone with a variable-rate mortgage or a home equity line of credit (HELOC) will surely be pleased with the Bank’s decision, as their rates continue to descend from a nearly 20-year high. 
• Although fixed mortgage rates are tied to the bond market and are thus not directly impacted by the Bank of Canada’s rate cut, bond yields have already dropped into the 2.8% range as of the Bank’s announcement. Should yields continue to trend lower, borrowers can expect to see further discounts.
• Canadians looking to buy a home or whose mortgage is up for renewal should get a rate hold to ensure they can take advantage of the best rate possible. If mortgage rates go down further during the time of your rate hold, you will be eligible for the lowest rate. 
• The previous two rate cuts in June and July did little to spur real estate demand, as prospective home buyers wait for mortgage rates to fall further. This cumulative 75-basis-point reduction could start to incentivize buyers to return to the market.

Factors that can affect your mortgage rate in Canada

It’s important to understand that the best mortgage rate you qualify for may change depending on your unique borrowing profile. Here are some of the factors that influence what mortgage rate you qualify for:

The type of mortgage: If your mortgage is for a refinance, rather than a purchase or renewal, you’ll be eligible for higher rates. For individuals with an existing mortgage who have good credit and more than 20% equity in their homes, in addition to refinancing, you can also explore a home equity line of credit (HELOC).

Your down payment: If you’re purchasing a home and your down payment is less than 20% of the purchase price and the value of the home you are purchasing is less than $1 million, you’ll be required to purchase mortgage default insurance (sometimes known as CMHC insurance). This insurance is added to your mortgage amount and, while it will cost you money, it will result in a lower mortgage rate as your mortgage is less risky for your lender. If you’re renewing your mortgage, in order to be eligible for the lowest mortgage rates you would have needed to purchase CMHC insurance on the original mortgage. 

Your intended use of the property: Your mortgage rate will be higher if you plan to rent your property out vs. live in it as your primary residence.

Your amortization period: Insurable mortgages (i.e. mortgages for homes valued at less than $1 million with a down payment of less than 20% of the purchase price) in Canada have a maximum amortization period of 25 years. Regardless of the price of your home, if you make a down payment of at least 20%, you are able to access a mortgage that allows a longer amortization period, such as a 30-year period. While longer amortization periods will usually result in a lower monthly payment, they can come with a slightly higher interest rate. Moreover, by taking longer to pay back the mortgage, you will pay more in interest overall than you would with a shorter amortization period.

How to choose between a fixed or variable mortgage rate in Canada

Variable vs. fixed mortgage rates

The difference between fixed and variable mortgage rates is whether or not they will change over the term of your mortgage. Fixed rates will stay the same over the course of your mortgage term (usually 5 years), while variable rates will change alongside changes in your lender’s prime rate.

Fixed mortgage rates:

Fixed mortgage rates are a historically popular option, with 5-year fixed mortgage rates accounting for 80% of all mortgage requests made on Ratehub.ca from January to December 2023. Moreover, according to the 2024 CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey, 69% of all mortgages contracted in 2024 were fixed-rate mortgages. The benefit of a fixed mortgage is that you are protected against interest rate fluctuations, so your regular payments stay constant over the duration of your term, regardless of what happens in the market. A fixed rate mortgage is ideal for you if you have a low appetite for risk. You’ll know how much you’ll be paying monthly right from the outset and not have to monitor interest rates.

Variable mortgage rates:

Variable mortgage rates are typically lower than fixed rates but can vary over the duration of your term. Variable mortgages are prone to market behaviour (via the prime rate) which affects your payments. That means your payment amounts can change over time. Variable rates remained substantially lower than fixed rates throughout 2021 and into 2022, leading a large number of buyers to opt for 5-year variable-rate mortgages. However, as variable-rate mortgages climbed to rates that are higher than fixed-rate mortgages over the course of ten rate hikes between March 2022 and July 2023, their popularity has substantially diminished. According to the 2024 CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey, 23% of mortgages contracted during 2024 were variable-rate mortgages (down from 27% in 2023). 

While variable rates are generally lower, they do fluctuate and can be viewed as more risky when compared to fixed rates. Moreover, variable rates have actually been higher than fixed rates since the end of 2022. That said, variable mortgage rates have some key advantages you should know about:

• You can convert a variable rate to a fixed rate at any time without a penalty as long as you stay with your original mortgage lender.
• Breaking a variable rate mortgage is substantially less expensive than breaking a fixed rate mortgage. To estimate the cost of breaking your mortgage, our mortgage penalty calculator is a useful tool. 

According to York University Professor Moshe Milevsky’s landmark 2001 study, historically, over 90% of Canadians who have maintained a variable mortgage rate throughout their entire mortgage term have paid less in interest than those who have stuck to a fixed rate.

How to select the term for your mortgage rate

Choosing between a short-term mortgage or a long-term mortgage can also affect your interest rate. A short-term mortgage generally offers a lower rate, and, as it requires more frequent renewal, you can benefit from lower interest rates when you renew, if rates stay low at your renewal. Long-term mortgages, on the other hand, offer stability, as you won’t need to renew it often. However, long-term mortgage holders may not be able to take advantage of lower interest rates if the market fluctuates. 

Open vs. closed mortgages

If you’re wondering whether to get an open or closed mortgage, the answer is, while an open mortgage may make sense in certain circumstances, the overwhelming majority of Canadians opt for a closed mortgage. While open mortgages have extra flexibility that you might need, closed mortgages are by far the more popular choice not only due to their lower rates, but also because most home buyers do not intend to pay off their mortgages in the short term. Moreover, fixed-rate open mortgages do not exist and variable-rate mortgages are very rare. The most common type of open mortgage is the Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC). Below are some quick facts about the differences between open and closed mortgages, and you can also find more detailed information on our blog about open vs. closed mortgages.

Closed mortgages:

Closed mortgages have lower rates compared to open mortgages. Closed mortgages can come in fixed and variable form, but place restrictions on the amount of principal you can pay down each year. If you pay off the entire principal in a closed mortgage before the set term, you will face a prepayment penalty, which is normally a 3-month interest charge.

Open mortgages:

Open mortgages allow you to pay off your entire mortgage balance at any time throughout the term. The drawback is that you pay a premium for that option in the form of higher rates. You might opt for an open mortgage if you are planning to move in the near future, or if you’re expecting a lump sum of money through an inheritance or bonus that would allow you to pay more of your mortgage off.

How do I qualify for a mortgage in Canada?

While it’s important to think about qualifying for the best rates, you should also give some thought to the basics that you’ll need to qualify and get approved for your mortgage. To qualify for a mortgage, here are some of the most important things that prospective lenders will want to see.  

A good credit score - You should have a credit score of 680 or higher to qualify for the best mortgage rates, but to qualify for a mortgage at all, you’ll need a credit score of at least 560. In addition to looking at your credit score, prospective lenders will also consider any derogatory information from your credit report, such as any missed payments (particularly if they have gone to collections). If you have bad credit, generally defined as a credit score of less than 660, you are unlikely to qualify for the best mortgage rates, and instead you’ll need to use a sub-prime mortgage lender like Equitable Bank or Home Trust. If your credit score is even less than 600, you will most probably need to use a private lender like WealthBridge. Sub-prime mortgage lenders are happy to work with people with a poor credit history, but they will charge higher mortgage rates. It's a good idea to have a detailed understanding of how your credit score affects your ability to obtain a mortgage.

Proof of income - You’ll also need to provide proof of income in the form of pay stubs and/or tax documents like your Notice of Assessment (NOA). Keep in mind that if you recently started a new job, even with proof of income, many lenders will want to see that you’ve held the position for at least a year. 

How the stress test impacts mortgage qualification

In Canada, anyone applying for a new mortgage loan must pass the mortgage stress test. The purpose of the stress test is to ensure the borrower could still manage to make their mortgage payments in the case that interest rates rise over the course of their term. The criteria for the stress test is a benchmark rate of 5.25% or the borrower’s contract rate plus 2% – whichever is higher. For example, if your lender offers you a mortgage rate of 5%, you’ll need to prove you could afford to make your payments at 7% in order to pass the test and qualify for your mortgage loan.

The standards for the mortgage stress test are upheld by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), Canada’s federal banking regulator, for low-ratio, uninsured mortgages. The criteria for high-ratio and insured mortgages is governed by the federal Department of Finance, though they follow exactly the standards put in place by OSFI.

All mortgage borrowers must be stress tested, with two exceptions:

• Borrowers who are renewing their mortgage term at their original lender often are not re-stress tested.
  
• Borrowers with high-ratio, insured mortgages switching to another lender at renewal may not be stress tested, as long as the original terms of their loan and amortization do not change.

Read more about Canada’s mortgage stress test:

• What changes are in store for Canada’s stress test?
• How to stress test your mortgage

Historical Canada mortgage rates

Looking at historical mortgage rates in Canada is a good way to understand which types of mortgage attract higher rates. They also make it easier to understand whether we’re currently in a low or higher rate environment, relatively speaking.

Here are some of the lowest Canada mortgage rates of the year for different types of mortgages over the past five years.

Source: Ratehub Historical Rate Chart

Is it worth working with a mortgage broker?

First, what exactly is a mortgage broker? Independent mortgage brokers are licensed mortgage specialists who have access to multiple lenders and mortgage rates. They essentially negotiate the lowest rate for you, and because they acquire high quantities of mortgage products, mortgage brokers can pass volume discounts directly to you. There are advantages to getting a mortgage directly from a lender as well as getting a mortgage through a broker, but there are differences between going with a bank vs. a mortgage broker. While going directly to your current bank lets you consolidate your financial products, using a broker allows you to shop around quickly and easily, at no cost to you.

Luckily, you don’t need to choose one or the other. You can speak to multiple banks and use a mortgage broker if you want to. Ratehub.ca is a great place to start, as we compare the best mortgage rates in Canada from multiple lenders. Once you’ve compared your options, we can put you in contact with your chosen provider.