Canada housing affordability and market trends

Canada housing affordability

It’s no secret that buying a home in Canada has become increasingly difficult over the last few years. This has been fuelled by rock-bottom rates thanks in part to two oversized rate cuts in March 2020 by the Bank of Canada, which brought the cost of borrowing at the time from 1.75% to just 0.25%. As a result, demand for housing boomed during the pandemic and sent home prices soaring. This price growth was part of a larger problem: runaway inflation, which peaked at a 40-year high of 8.1% back in June 2022.

In order to tamp down inflation to its target rate of 2%, the Bank of Canada, whose mandate it is to keep inflation under control, implemented a series of 10 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, which sent borrowing costs soaring and bond yields climbing. As a result, both variable and fixed mortgage rates rapidly climbed, and many housing markets across Canada saw home sales plummet, with home prices also falling in most markets.

However, the Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hiking cycle is now paying off; as of September 2024, inflation now sits at 2%. As inflation appears to be on the decline both in Canada and in the United States, the central bank is now in a position to ease borrowing costs. It has kicked off this new lower-rate era by cutting its trend-setting Overnight Lending Rate four times in a row from June to October 2024. These rate decreases have brought the Overnight Lending Rate down to 3.75% from its previous 5%. They also immediately brought down variable mortgage rates and the rates on home equity lines of credit (HELOC). Bond yields have fallen in response, putting downward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

While mortgage rates and home prices remain elevated, there is reason to believe that, so long as inflation remains within the Bank’s 2-3% target, mortgage rates will continue to decline. Whether that leads to improved home affordability in Canada remains to be seen, as lower rates could reignite demand, leading to real estate price growth across the country once again. 

November Canada affordability update 

According to Ratehub.ca's latest report, home affordability improved in most Canadian markets in October 2024, thanks to falling mortgage rates and steady home prices. The average five-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 4.86%, lowering the mortgage stress test threshold to 6.86%. These changes reduced the income required to qualify for a mortgage in 12 out of 13 cities.

Vancouver saw the greatest improvement in affordability, with required income falling by $4,540 as the average home price dipped by $7,700 to $1,172,000. Toronto followed, with a $4,380 reduction in required income due to an $8,500 decline in average home prices to $1,060,200.

However, smaller markets like Fredericton faced affordability challenges. A $16,100 surge in home prices increased the required income by $1,890, making it the only city where affordability worsened this month.

Looking ahead, further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada are anticipated in December, which could reduce borrowing costs even more. However, increased demand may drive prices higher in 2025, with the national average home price projected to rise by 4.4% next year.

Read more: Bank of Canada rate cuts lead to improved home affordability in October

November Canada housing update

On November 15, 2024, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported that home sales across Canada saw a 30% year-over-year increase in October 2024, with 44,041 transactions. This marked a 7.7% increase from September. The Greater Toronto Area and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland led the way with sales growth of 43.3% and 32.4%, respectively.

This resurgence comes as the Bank of Canada’s four rate cuts since June, including a substantial 0.5% reduction in October, have lowered borrowing costs. Buyers are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates, with further cuts anticipated in December and throughout 2025.

The national average home price increased by 6% year-over-year to $696,166, but the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.1% from September, reflecting relatively flat pricing trends for most of the year. Total new listings in October were slightly down by -3.5% compared to September, but overall supply remains higher than a year ago, with 174,458 properties available, an 11.4% increase. 

However, signs of tightening supply are emerging. The months of inventory decreased to 3.7 from 4.1 in September, approaching seller’s market territory. The sales-to-new-listings ratio also rose to 58%, surpassing the long-term average of 55%, suggesting growing buyer competition.

With additional rate cuts expected, activity in the housing market may continue to accelerate, potentially increasing prices if new listings fail to keep pace with rising demand. 

Read more: National home sales rise 30% in October

*National home data sales data for September is not yet available, as home sales data for a given month is not published until the following month. September's data will become available in mid-October upon publication of home sales figures by CREA.  

Benchmark price vs. average price

When reporting on housing price trends, real estate boards use two different metrics: the average home price, and the benchmark home price. These two measures provide different insights into price trends, and how the market is evolving in both the short and long term.

• The average home price is calculated by adding the sale price of all the homes sold over a period of time, and then divided by the number of transactions. This provides the average price per unit. However, because the mix of the home sold can fluctuate significantly from month to month or by year, average home price trends can be more volatile, and do not always offer an accurate portrayal of the most common home sale in a given market.
• A benchmark home price is based on an index that’s been developed based on specific housing features, and how they change in terms of demand and value to home buyers over time. This provides a more accurate picture of the most typical type of home sold in a specific market, and that has changed over time. An example of a benchmark home price in the MLS Home Price Index created and used by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is based on more than 15 years of CREA’s proprietary MLS System data, as well as statistical models to determine the “typical” home type and value per market.

What is the SNLR?

The “SNLR” stands for sales-to-new-listings ratio. It is a measure used by real estate boards to gauge the level of competition within a given housing market, and whether or not it's considered to be a “balanced” market, or more favourable to buyers or sellers. The SNLR is calculated by dividing the number of home sales by the number of newly-listed homes brought to market during a period of time. For example, if there were 500 home sales in a specific city during the month of March, and 750 homes brought to market, the SNLR would be:

(500/750)*100 = an SNLR of 66%

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association:

• A ratio of 45 - 65% is considered a balanced market. This means there is a sufficient supply of homes available for sale to meet home buyer demand. These conditions help keep home price growth stable, and buyers are less likely to encounter excessive multi-offer situations that can drive prices higher.
  
  
• A ratio below 45% is considered to be a buyers’ market. This means there is an oversupply of available homes for sale and not enough buyer demand. Home prices tend to decrease in buyers’ markets as homes often sell for less than they’re listed, and multi-offer situations are less common.
  
  
• A ratio above 65% is considered to be a sellers’ market. This defines a market where there are too few homes available for sale to satisfy buyer demand, and competition to purchase listings is fierce. Home prices are driven higher in sellers’ markets as buyers must often engage in bidding wars on the same property.

How the stress test impacts mortgage qualification

The mortgage stress test is a mortgage qualification requirement that ensures borrowers could still afford to make their payments in the case that interest rates should rise. Mortgage applicants must prove they could still afford their mortgage under the higher of the following two scenarios:

• The mortgage rate they receive from their lender, plus 2%.
  
• The Minimum Qualifying Rate (MQR), which is currently 5.25%. However, given there are no contract mortgage rates currently available at 3.25% or lower, this threshold is obsolete, and will remain so unless Canadian mortgage rates considerably decrease. 

For example, let’s say you get a mortgage rate of 5% from your mortgage lender. You would actually need to have the sufficient borrowing criteria – such as income, debt ratios, and down payment size, etc. – to qualify for a mortgage at 7%. 

The mortgage stress test also reduces the size of mortgage borrowers will qualify for. This is because when you have a higher mortgage rate, it results in a higher monthly payment to cover the additional cost of borrowing.

For example, let’s say a borrower has a household income of $100,000, and buys a home priced at $454,161, with a down payment of $50,000. However, because the borrower must qualify at a rate of 7.64%, the purchase price they’d actually qualify for would be just $387,670 – a difference of $66,691.

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